Jamie Dlugosch
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In my perusal of gold stocks, only one -- Harmony Gold Mining Co. (NYSE: HMY) -- trades rationally, but that is not enough to justify holding the stock if you believe, as I do, that gold prices are likely to fall.

Even with gold at $1,000 per ounce, HMY trades for a modest 12 times trailing earnings and 15 times forward earnings. For this valuation to hold up, gold prices need to continue their ascent at a fairly significant clip. If gold is truly a hedge against the end of the world scenario and collapse of the dollar, investor expectations should be to protect capital. These gold mining stocks, including Harmony, trade like growth stocks.

Do you see my point?

Imagine what happens to gold mining stocks if gold were to trade for less than $500 per ounce? It would not be pretty. These stocks are priced to perfection and beyond. That is why they should be sold.

Add Goldcorp Inc. (NYSE: GG) to the list of overvalued gold miners. At $40 per share, GG now trades within spitting distance of previous highs.

Those highs were attained at the end of an expansionary period, not at the beginning.

One of the hottest gold stocks is Yamana Gold Inc. (NYSE: AUY).

With a share price that is affordable to the retail customer, smaller investors have been gobbling up shares in 2009.

But like AngloGold, the credit crisis knocked the wind out of the Yamana trade.

Shares actually were fairly valued when they bottomed below $5 per share. Now, with more than 100% recovery of that value, AUY trades above $10 per share. As a result, the valuation is way ahead of itself. Shares of AUY trade for more than 17 times trailing earnings and 18 times forward earnings. Gold prices would have to continue increasing by 15% to 20% per annum in order to justify these prices.

AngloGold Ashanti Ltd. (NYSE: AU) is one of the largest gold mining operations in the world.

The gold cult has made this company very wealthy -- AU has a current market capitalization of more than $15 billion.

I highly doubt the jewelry market could support that valuation, but the wacko gold bugs certainly do.

Barrick Gold Corp. (NYSE: ABX) announced that it would begin eliminating its hedges against a collapse in gold prices.

In so doing, the company is raising some $3 billion with the sale of stock that will dilute current shareholders.

While the gold hedges may have acted as a brake on revenues and profits in a rising gold price environment, the strategy was prudent.

Gold at $1,000. Better buy now or you will miss the greatest invention since tulips in the 1800s.

Or so they say. I say, what a bunch of baloney. Why on earth would I want to put hard-earned cash on something that may look pretty but has no real tangible value?

That's right, gold has no tangible value. Well, that's not entirely true since there is a vast cult of worshipers out there that say gold is the only thing with value. As a result of their die-hard belief, gold actually does have value, as we now see with AU trading for $1,000 per ounce.

Shares of American Express (NYSE: AXP) bottomed in early March at just over $10 per share.

Instead of covering, I hedged my bet by keeping the American Express short open. I suppose that is the entire point of absolute return investing, but boy, was I wrong in doing that.

AXP shot up like a rocket over the last three months and now trades above $23 per share. It has been a big gainer this year, returning 25% through the end of the second quarter.

Investors continued to sell Eastman Kodak (NYSE: EK) during the second quarter, and shares bottomed at $2 per share.

Looking forward, I recently added Eastman Kodak to my Penny Stock Winners model portfolio as a buy recommendation.

In my opinion, the carnage at Eastman Kodak has been complete and the upside benefit of the digtal revolution is worth the speculation. The company may never fully recover from the last few years, but a small improvement in operations can result in big gains in the stock.

I would be a buyer of Eastman Kodak at these prices.

Next: Stock to Avoid #10

Don't be deceived by the short-term performance of United Technologies (NYSE: UTX). The weakness of the dollar in the second quarter helped push shares of this multinational manufacturer higher. But these gains merely allowed the company to recover big losses sustained during the first quarter of the year.

The double whammy here for investors is exposure to the aerospace industry. As described previously, the weakness in the airline industry will negatively impact revenue for those companies providing equipment to the space. In addition, reductions in defense spending will also negatively impact UTX.

We are in the early stages of seeing change in how this company operates in the current environment. There is no catalyst for this stock to go higher, and shares are vulnerable to the extent the dollar strengthens. I would sell UTX.

Next: Stock to Avoid #9

To get an idea of how poorly United Airlines (NASDAQ: UAUA) has performed, may I suggest viewing this little nugget.

If United is breaking guitars as accused, I would fly another airline. As an avid guitar player myself, such carelessness is unacceptable. The airline industry is struggling, and poor customer service does not help. The above video is now going viral on the Internet - what a PR disaster for United.

Similar to Dupont, I selected Eastman Chemical (NYSE: EMN) as a stock to avoid due to rising input prices and low margins. It is a simple formula that cannot be broken: If a company cannot pass along higher costs, it will make less.

The market has yet to grasp that concept with respect to EMN. The stock has more than doubled since bottoming in March and has skyrocketed during the second quarter. This is in stock contrast to the poor performance at Dupont.

For the first two months of the second quarter Boeing (NYSE: BA) was on fire. BA gained significantly during that time, but then the company announced a delay in their much-awaited DreamShip -- a delay that opened the door for the airlines to cancel orders. Speculation based on that scenario slapped the stock back down to the flat line for the second quarter.

Unfortunately, the news does not get better for Boeing. There is too much capacity in the airline space, and new planes are not needed.

I would be a seller of Boeing today.

Next: Stock to Avoid #6

Since bottoming in March, Capital One (NYSE: COF) rocketed to $30 by early May. The stock gave back some of those gains, but still trades for approximately more than 100% of the cover price.

The reason for the big gain is directly correlated to TARP and a belief that credit card companies will do better than most expect.

I'm still skeptical.

Given the economic crisis and global recession, I hypothesized that multinationals may suffer as a result of a strong dollar. The idea being that investors would flock to the dollar in search of safety. Over the last quarter though, the reverse has been true.

The dollar weakened significantly as investors bet against the greenback due to inflationary spending in the U.S. As a result, the multinationals have been big winners in the last quarter.

3M (NYSE: MMM) though was only up slightly in the second quarter as the company's products failed to capture the imagination of buyers across the globe. When the dollar strengthens in the latter half of 2009, look for MMM to stumble.

Next: Stock to Avoid #4

Another stock leveraged to the oil market is Dupont (NYSE: DD). Because many of the company's products are derived from crude oil, rising oil prices negatively impact profit margins. The only recourse, then, is to raise the price for consumers. But doing so in this environment is unlikely given the weakness in the economy.

As a result, the dynamics of the market are such that profits for DD will be lower in the near term.

That puts the company in a bit of a Catch-22.